Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program

The cone of plausibility

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The cone of plausibility is meant to graphically represent the relationship between the present moment in time and the certainty of our knowledge about future events. It provides a useful visual heuristic for planners looking into the future. But as the diagram depicts, the further into the future we seek to plan, the greater the number of possible events.

This first public mention of the “cone of plausibility” was by Charles Taylor in 1988 to illustrate the geopolitical scenarios he posed in Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning (Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute). Since Taylor’s initial development of a scenarios cone, or “cone of plausibility,” many simplified and modern alternatives have been developed by futurists including Trevor Hancock, Clement Bezold and Joseph Voros.

The cone of plausibility - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
Nasa Aerogel - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Nasa Aerogel
Tellus Audio Cassette Magazine - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Tellus Audio Cassette Magazine
The Richat Structure - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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The Richat Structure
First Item Sold on Ebay - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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First Item Sold on Ebay
Johnson's Criteria - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Johnson's Criteria
Alain Robert - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Alain Robert
Controlled Impact Demonstration - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Controlled Impact Demonstration
Lichtenberg Figure - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Lichtenberg Figure
Demon Core - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Demon Core
Plan Voisin - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Plan Voisin
Namio Harukawa - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Namio Harukawa
Cicada 3301 - © Attention Deficit Disorder Prosthetic Memory Program
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Cicada 3301

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